Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Sunday 25 May - Tuesday 3 Jun
A much more unsettled period than of late with the whole of the UK likely to see showers or some longer spells of rain, but also some drier and brighter interludes. For Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday it's likely a story of sunshine and showers. The showers will be heavier and more frequent in the west where it may also be windy, especially across the northwest. The east, especially the southeast may well see a good deal of dry weather. The rest of the week then sees further frontal systems run into the UK, bringing more widespread rain at times, but again some drier spells in-between these. Temperatures will probably be close to average, perhaps slightly above at times, but will feel fairly cool in the often strong winds.
Wednesday 4 Jun - Wednesday 18 Jun
Changeable weather conditions are expected as we head into June although with time a trend toward longer settled spells seems likely. So spells of wet weather with showers or longer spells of rain are likely to be interspersed with drier, sunnier periods these drier periods may become more prevalent as we had further into June. Overall, it will likely be wetter in the west and drier in the east. Temperatures will probably average out around normal, although some very warm or even hot spells are still possible, as normal for the time of year.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).