Long range forecast
() weather
Sunday 8 Mar - Tuesday 17 Mar
A broad northwest-southeast split in the weather looks the most likely scenario as we move into the second week of March. High pressure centred over continental Europe should maintain enough of an influence across southern and eastern UK to allow for a fair bit of dry and at times bright weather, whilst the majority of rain-bearing weather systems affect the northwest of the UK. Some strong winds are likely at times in the northwest. Temperatures look to be mostly near to a little above average. Towards the end of this period, there is chance that unsettled conditions in the northwest may become rather more widespread.
Wednesday 18 Mar - Wednesday 1 Apr
A more widely unsettled spell of weather is possible through the middle part of March, with periods of rain and strong winds affecting much of the UK. Whilst confidence in the details is low, there is the potential for weather patterns to become slower-moving towards late March, with unsettled weather become more confined to parts of the south, whilst areas towards the north and northwest turn drier. Given this pattern, the chance of wintry hazards will increase compared to earlier in March. Overall, temperatures will probably end up near to average, but there is an increasing chance of below average temperatures towards the end of March, though at present, there is no strong sign for any really cold weather to develop.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Our long-range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).