Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Thursday 5 Jun - Saturday 14 Jun
A changeable spell of weather is expected at the beginning of this period as areas of low pressure move in from the Atlantic across the UK. These will bring showers or longer spells of rain to most areas, heavy at times and perhaps accompanied by strong winds along some coasts, though drier interludes are likely too. Towards the middle of June, high pressure will probably begin to become more dominant in the south, at least for brief periods, whereas the north is more likely to remain more unsettled with further episodes of rain or showers and strong winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below normal at first, perhaps rising above average later, with a chance of a few hot days.
Sunday 15 Jun - Sunday 29 Jun
Changeable weather is most likely across the UK with a mixture of Atlantic weather systems moving in from the west interspersed with dry and sunny periods, perhaps with a bias towards longer dry spells early in the period. Temperatures are most likely to be near or slightly above normal, perhaps with some hot spells at times especially across the south.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).